P3d V2.....first thoughts.

[HarryZ]

Microsoft may have sold them use of some of the rights, I can tell you they did not sell them the code.

So what? If LM can design the F16, the F22 raptor and many other aircrafts, I'm sure they have enough very competent software people that could write their own code, assuming of course they think it's a big enough market to bother with it.
The fact that they even bothered creating P3d suggests to me they think it has a future, but who knows? 

Maurice

Maurice,

Problem is that's not what LM is interested in doing and it's not the market that is driving them. They can't market P3D like MS marketed FS X and that's in the license.   MS would have to sell them the entire FS X package and I somehow doubt they have any interest in that at all.

[Maurice]

P

Maurice,

Problem is that's not what LM is interested in doing and it's not the market that is driving them. They can't market P3D like MS marketed FS X and that's in the license.   MS would have to sell them the entire FS X package and I somehow doubt they have any interest in that at all.

Perhaps, but they don't really need to market it. Who is naive enough to believe that most P3d buyers are not using it for entertainment? In fact, I would venture to say that all or nearly all P3d users are ex MS simulator users who believe or desperately want to believe that P3d is the replacement for FSX.

Even if LM cannot or will not ever convert to 64 bits, there is a huge pool of FSX users hungry for some of the new goodies P3d offers and as long as LM continues to improve it and iron out the initial bugs, more & more FSX users will eventually switch and maybe even more will switch if it remains a 32 bit application since they will be able to keep using many of their existing addons which they could not do with a switch to a 64 bit application.

Anyway, this is all pure speculation at this time. LM will do whatever they can do to increase their market share otherwise, why even bother developing p3d? I doubt that their really legal market is lucrative enough to justify the development costs and they need the existing pool of 'FS gamers' who also are great at finding all the bugs in their software without them paying for software testers 

Maurice

[Kennair]

I agree with Maurice, LM would surely know that most of their market for P3D are FSX users, they are seriously active in the forum attending to bug fixes and update releases to the loyal base. 

I must confess to being a little bemused as to why an aircraft manufacturer specialising in mult-multi-million dollar fighter aircraft would expend time and precious funds developing an old software platform for supposed "military" training, and as an aside attend judiciously to a hungry domestic flightsim market under the guise of "training".  I would hazard there is a very big potentially cornered market in the domestic realm driving their bean counters and the Acadamic license is a simple way of getting around the fact they don't have full rights to the Entertainment license.  Don't get me wrong, no complaints from me, seriously excited about the development however as Rhys pointed out, should they go 64bit, while great for the future of the core simulator, all current addons will be obsolete and it will put them behind the current dominator in the 64bit arena, X-plane.

Ok back to testing v2.0 (and the more I test the more I'm waiting patiently for v2.1  )

Ken.

[Nat Crea]

1) Your visual system is about the only one I've seen so far that makes me (slightly) question my plans to use 3 really large HDTVs. Bravo on the visuals- looks really great.

Thanks Eric! I'm pretty proud of my system.
Yes I used the wrong word to describe the clouds BUT whatever they did in v2.0...they look the best Ive ever seen

Frank, How is your visual system/projectors going?

Rob (737Nut) said it best, the best Sim would be a combination of P3D and XPlane.
The only reason I had to go back to FSX/P3D was for FTX/ORBX and complete hardware compatibility.

Nat

[HarryZ]

One of the misconceptions that we high end cockpit builders have is that there is a huge flight simulator market out there for companies to continue to develop this kind of software.  Simply wrong, guys.

In order to make any real money in this market, you have to be able to sell hundreds and hundreds of thousands of copies to pay for the development costs.  And to do that you need a huge distribution network that the likes of MS has.  Yet they abandoned any future development of FS and got out of it altogether.  Ever ask yourself, why?

While there are several reasons, one is the sales of FS products continued to drop.  We, the high end people, always bought their new products but we probably account for about 5-10% of the total market.  That's why nobody has stepped up from the 3rd party group to develop an entirely new flight simulator.....it's too costly and not enough profit to be made.  The 3rd party group's sales continue to drop and one wonders just how long they can continue to provide their 3rd party add-ons for a 7 year old simulator.

LM stepped in and purchased limited rights to FS X. They did for a variety of reasons but not to replace FS X with their own product.  Yes, they benefit from the die hard FS Xers who will purchase their product (me included)  but our group is very, very small in the big picture of things.

In my business, I get to talk with many different people in the simulator business and believe me, what I am stating is not just my own personal opinion.  It comes from speaking with different people.  Many of the companies involved are turning their energy to the professional end of simulation where there is money to be made...and yes, X Plane is one of them. 

I'm not trying to diminish the enthusiasm our group has in this arena as I am one of them who has been in this business for over 14 years.  But there is a business reality here and it doesn't match what we hope will happen.

[Maurice]

Well Harry, this may all be true but it still begs the question of why LM folks are dipping their toes in this market if there is little money to be made? And who is to say Microsoft will not decide to sell the whole entertainment license to raise some cash? Why hang on to something that has no future instead of getting as much as you can while you still can?

Whatever the reasons, I'm glad FSX or its 'replacement' is not totally dead as my current foray into XPlane is not looking very promising at all for many reasons which I will talk about soon.

Maurice

[HarryZ]

Well Harry, this may all be true but it still begs the question of why LM folks are dipping their toes in this market if there is little money to be made? And who is to say Microsoft will not decide to sell the whole entertainment license to raise some cash? Why hang on to something that has no future instead of getting as much as you can while you still can?

Whatever the reasons, I'm glad FSX or its 'replacement' is not totally dead as my current foray into XPlane is not looking very promising at all for many reasons which I will talk about soon.

Maurice

Hi Maurice,

I spoke with LM about a year ago and while I'm not at liberty to relate what was said, I can say that their purchase of FS X's ESP platform was not intended to replace FS X in the market place.

When it comes to markets though, I am going to ask the readers here to try and guess what kind of numbers are involved in 3rd party add-on sales.  And use the "hay day" time period from around 2003-2005 when FS sales were at their peak.

1. Average number of total sales per year for new 3rd party products.

2. What number of sales was considered beyond expectations for any one product.

3. What kind of numbers ended up being a "blockbuster".

Of course, different products were better than others, with the heavy iron a/c being the best.

[Garys]

Interesting Harry, and your probably right, but if the numbers are poor for the now dead FS series, why have the third party developers been so reluctant to move to Xplane, a platform that is still moving Fwd?

Gary

[HarryZ]

Interesting Harry, and your probably right, but if the numbers are poor for the now dead FS series, why have the third party developers been so reluctant to move to Xplane, a platform that is still moving Fwd?

Gary

The cost to do so and a very small market that would result in minimal  if any profit.   FS X has been kept alive by many people who have used their talents to tweak it for today's hardware advances.  The 3rd party people know that the basic code hasn't and isn't going to change for it and can continue to make products a lot easier.

So far P3D's add ons are about 10% of what FS X's are.

[Maurice]

Hi Maurice,

I spoke with LM about a year ago and while I'm not at liberty to relate what was said, I can say that their purchase of FS X's ESP platform was not intended to replace FS X in the market place.

Do you really think they would have told any 'outsider' what their true plans are? My guess would be they would only repeat their corporate position that matches their agreement with Microsoft. I know I am being a tad cynical here but I do not believe what corporate honchos say even when they face a judicial enquiry. What really goes on behind closed doors is for them to know and for us to speculate about and most likely not even be close to what is really going on.

And does it really matter if you call P3d an FSX replacement or a brand new application that does mostly what FSX used to do?  . If it looks like FSX, behaves like FSX, amuses you like FSX or makes you despair like FSX, it may not be FSX's direct sibling, but it sure carries most of its genes

And as far as your questions re. number of addons sales, Microsoft never really cared how many addons would be sold. They only cared about how many flight simulators they would sell and they were only too happy about the addons in so far as they improved their product and generated mores sales for them.

So why couldn't LM do the same? Bottom line, none of us really know LM plans and FSX users are hoping for salvation while XPlane users sit there smugly and just gloat about the whole thing and who can blame them?

Maurice

[HarryZ]

Do you really think they would have told any 'outsider' what their true plans are? My guess would be they would only repeat their corporate position that matches their agreement with Microsoft. I know I am being a tad cynical here but I do not believe what corporate honchos say even when they face a judicial enquiry. What really goes on behind closed doors is for them to know and for us to speculate about and most likely not even be close to what is really going on.

Well, I guess it depends on who you talk with and their level of trust with you during the conversation.  Of course they are not going to tell you their inside corporate secrets.  The only thing I will say is that unless the agreement between MS and LM changes drastically, LM will not be marketing P3D as a FS substitute.

And as far as your questions re. number of addons sales, Microsoft never really cared how many addons would be sold. They only cared about how many flight simulators they would sell and they were only too happy about the addons in so far as they improved their product and generated mores sales for them.

Of course MS didn't care about 3rd party sales although they did offer a fair amount of co-operation with those developers.  But that wasn't my point.  Those numbers indicate what a tiny market the high end flight simulator group really is and why nobody has come up with a replacement for FS X. ...there just isn't any money in it. 

So why couldn't LM do the same? Bottom line, none of us really know LM plans and FSX users are hoping for salvation while XPlane users sit there smugly and just gloat about the whole thing and who can blame them?

Simple...no money to be made.  LM can probably make enough to pay for the costs of what they bought while providing their customers a very inexpensive training platform.  They walk a tight line with their contract with MS.  And X Plane's product for gamers hasn't progressed as much as many had thought it would with FS X gone.  Laminar is focusing on the professional end of things and the 3rd party group isn't rushing to do add-ons for X Plane due to cost among other reasons.

When MS dumped the Aces group, I and many others thought that someone would come forth and develop a brand new simulator and market it like MS did with FS X.  Hasn't happened and it won't....too costly for much too small a market.  And the sales numbers are dropping every year...sigh!

[Maurice]

Cheer up Harry! There's always train simulator to fall back on if flight sims die 

Maurice

[fsaviator]

Gentlemen,
I remember a similar thread back when LM brought out P3D.

I'll repeat what I said back then, as it still appears to hold true.  LM never had an interest in replacing FSX, and they still do not.  P3D is a drop in the bucket for LM.  To understand what they are doing, you only need to understand how the US Military contract world works, know some of the contracts LM and its subs currently service, and understand how the US Military selects and trains it's pilots.  Then take a look at the licensing system they have put in place, and the changes they have implemented and what they support.

P3D is NOT the next big sim.  LM is not in the commercial and entertainment software business.  There is no money in it.  Look around.  I don't see the FDS, CP Flight, Prosim, Simworld, Sismo, Aerosoft, PFPX, PMDG etc etc folks driving Porsche and Ferrari.  All these guys do what they do for the love of the hobby and the people in it (and some have a misguided notion that they'll get rich).  Just like MS did with the FS franchise.  LM does not.

Put this into perspective.  LM deals in contracts in excess of tens and hundreds of Million dollars.  If they need to buy out the rights to P3D to support one of their programs, or to ensure third party development to support one of their programs...  do you think it actually registers on the bottom line?  Count how many simmers you know, and then apply the cost of one or two licenses of P3D to each.  What are the total sales?  At the end of the day, they probably pay more in annual salaries to the team that supports P3D than they pull in from our small community in licenses.

While I would love to see P3D take off, or ACES to come back together, the real truth of the matter is, if we expect to keep simming far into the future, we will need to jump on the Austin Meyers train, or look at other options like DCS.

[HarryZ]

Cheer up Harry! There's always train simulator to fall back on if flight sims die 

Maurice

Geez Maurice, if flight sims die so does my business

And I know long haul flights can be boring but can you imagine running a train simulator!!??

[HarryZ]

While I would love to see P3D take off, or ACES to come back together, the real truth of the matter is, if we expect to keep simming far into the future, we will need to jump on the Austin Meyers train, or look at other options like DCS.

Some of the people in the add on business had that thought as well as did the flt sim community.  But like I said earlier,  I heard that Austin is placing most of his eggs in the professional sim basket of things and not too interested in the gaming aspect of X Plane. Time will tell.

And in the world of 3rd party add-on companies....I'm thinking that unless some amalgamations take place, there's not much of a chance all those players can survive on their own.

[XOrionFE]

The huge difference between the others and X-Plane is that Austin built in a huge ability for developers to create more for it with open api's, planemaker, and such and there is a huge shareware/freeware community around it that is growing all the time.  Look at all the new airports in the latest build that juat came out.   It is growing and growing and growing.   It can totally take advantage of hardware and increases in technology where others cant.  Anyone can say what they will but from my little vantage point I think X-Plane is the best future for our hobby.

Scott

[jfuenmayor]

Happy Holydays to everyone.

Coming from FS2004, PMDG ,PM paradigm, I have recently made the jump
from it to Sim-Avionics, XPUIPC and X Plane.
I tried to switch a couple of years ago with X Plane9 and XPUIPC but I felt that
the combination was not quite ready for prime time.

X Plane 10 has greatly improved and XPUIPC 2.0 is a significant leap forward.
I have run FSX alongside with X Plane and FSX has not impressed me much. Quite frankly,
I would go back to FS2004 for its better stability. I was hoping it to perform better in an i7 3.5 GHtz and 32 Gigs of RAM with a fast adapter with 4 Gigs on board. Not so.

It seems to me that from the software engineering point of view, that X Plane is probably better designed. The fact that it is a multiplataform software is a favorable indicator. FSX is a fork of FS2004 which is is also a baby of the original MSFS and which in turn, got a lot of code from The SubLogic group which they bought, remember ATP?. If they used their codebase or not, it's anybody's guess. It is like the story of DOS -> Win95 -> WinXP - >NT -> Vista -> 7 -> 8. A lot of baggage code for backwards compatibility. Hell, I wish all the software ran on Linux, but again it is all about economics. Average Joe Sixpack ( don't get me wrong, I love beer, it's just an expression ) will not run their games in a Linux Box not because is difficult but because they don't know any better.

I am still having a few quirks with X Plane, but in my opinion it is still ahead.
Prepar-3D may be a guessing game. X Plane probably not. If MS pulled the plug with no sorrows on FS, then LM would do it in heartbeat if it needed be. Big corporations operate in a different realm.  So yes, I agree with FSaviator, X pPlane is probably the way to go.

I know that a lot of people have invested time and effort in FS, but the Universe is moving away from the Singularity, at least for now .

JF

[Maurice]

Gentlemen,
I remember a similar thread when LM brought out P3D

And yet, they are still around developing it and they appear to be actively engaging in discussions with various partners. Makes you wonder why if it is really an insignificant market. Don't they have better things to occupy their designers?

Simmers may not be their prime directive but they sure seem to be interested in their input, at least for the time being.

As for XPlane, I installed it and had high hopes a few days ago. But after fighting with it for several days,  I must say, I positively hate it for many reasons. There is no way this will be my new sim in its present form. Different strokes for different folks.

Maurice

[HarryZ]

And yet, they are still around developing it and they appear to be actively engaging in discussions with various partners. Makes you wonder why if it is really an insignificant market. Don't they have better things to occupy their designers?

Developing it in their time and within their own purpose.  The hobby simulator market has little to do with what LM is doing.  Yes they are improving P3D but I would imagine for their training plans and likely other reasons we don't know about.  LM has a multi billion dollar operation and P3D probably flys under the radar within the company.  When I was at ITSEC, I asked a few of their reps about it and I got nothing but blank stares.  My contact wasn't there and unfortunately I was unable to update any info with that person.

[Garys]

As long as LM continue to develop and iron out the legacy bugs like the microstutter bug that they found yesterday, we will all benefit.  I think alot of  aviation enthusiasts who were yet to take up the hobby got turned off by the extremely poor performance of FSX. The problem with that though as you mentioned earlier is FSX has been out for 7 years, The old timers already have numerous addons and many of us are now reluctant or at least more selective than we once were in buying more, so its only natural unfortunately that sales in that area will decline. Hopefully with the progress being made we will start to see some real performance improvements which will get some excitement into the community and back up and buying again for the new platform.

Gary

[Nat Crea]

Getting back on track...

I recently compared 5760x1080 on one computer/multi-comp with P3Dv2 and then FSX:

FSX wiped P3D off the floor as far as performance goes on one PC @5760x1080...

P3D looked and performed  better then FSX on a mutli-comp/Wideview setup.

So for now, depending on your system, I believe there two options.

Nat

(i73770K's / GTX660Ti's)

[Maurice]

Getting back on track...

FSX wiped P3D off the floor as far as performance goes on one PC @5760x1080...

P3D looked and performed  better then FSX on a mutli-comp/Wideview setup.

So for now, depending on your system, I believe there two options.

Nat

(i73770K's / GTX660Ti's)

This actually makes perfect sense. FSX never benefitted from more powerful video cards as it is CPU bound. With P3d, my CPU utilization took a real dip while the GPU utilization is almost pegged at almost 100% most of the time. With a single monitor, P3d wins and with multiple monitors, FSX is better but performance wise only.  Seems very odd but that is my experience.

So, with multiple PCs sharing the graphics load, it's obvious performance should be much improved in P3d and certainly in FSX and XP as well. Nothing really new here...throw enough horsepower in and you can have the same visuals as a level D simulator.

Maurice

[sagrada737]

Interesting comments Maurice...   As they say, "Add enough power, and you can even make a brick fly!"   

Clearly, entering the Prepar3d and XPlane waters is not for everyone.  That is... not without getting burned a few times along the way to creating a complex Sim.  I have yet to see a post where "everything" is working correctly with any Sim.    I think I'll wait till next year before considering Prepar3d or XPlane.

That said, My dual computer FSX/Sim-Avionics 3-monitor setup seems to be fairly stable if I always reboot after every flight, and always begin from a Cold & Dark configuration - works every time.  By contrast, if I try to do multiple back-to-back flights, the results are questionable with FSX sometimes displaying strange behavior - like turbulence when the weather model (ASNext) is set for no turbulence.

Sims are a bit like the mileage sticker on a new car...   "Your mileage may vary."   

Mike

[rhysb]

The huge difference between the others and X-Plane is that Austin built in a huge ability for developers to create more for it with open api's, planemaker, and such and there is a huge shareware/freeware community around it that is growing all the time.  Look at all the new airports in the latest build that juat came out.   It is growing and growing and growing.   It can totally take advantage of hardware and increases in technology where others cant.  Anyone can say what they will but from my little vantage point I think X-Plane is the best future for our hobby.

Scott

Totally agree, I have 90% of my addon scenery in xplane is freeware! I could show you freeware sceneries ORBX could only dream of!

Everyone should stop speculating and just go and buy xplane!!

[Maurice]

Everyone should stop speculating and just go and buy xplane!!

I did, and now I know for sure that XP runs like crap in my system. But at least I know and can stop wondering whether I was missing some great things or not. 

Maurice